The latest data from the General Administration of Customs show that in October China exported 7.939 million tons of steel, 124,000 tons less than last month, down 1.5%; January to October, the cumulative total of 74.732 million tons of steel exports, an increase of 34.8% year-on-year.

This year, China's steel exports of strong momentum triggered market concern. From January to September, China exported 66.818 million tons of steel, an increase of 31.8% year-on-year. From the domestic market supply and demand, in the first three quarters, China's crude steel production increased by 1.7% year-on-year, and crude steel apparent consumption fell by 1.5%. In the case of domestic steel supply strength rather than demand, steel exports to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market have played a greater role in supporting. From the perspective of export varieties, the growth of hot rolled coil and medium plate was more obvious, the export of coated plate maintained steady growth, and the export of high value-added products increased.

In the recently held China Iron and Steel Industry Association 2023 third-quarter information conference, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, director of the market research department Tong Minghua analyzed, the first eight months, in addition to China, the rest of the world's crude steel production fell by 2.8% year-on-year. With overseas supply declining, China's steel exports have met the needs of overseas users. This year, the steel export offer continues to be higher than the domestic market, superimposed on the exchange rate changes, steel export benefits better than domestic sales, and the return of funds is more secure, steel enterprises export power is more adequate.

For the subsequent export situation, industry experts expect that affected by multiple constraints, the fourth quarter of China's steel exports will decline, but the year-on-year growth trend will be maintained.

China Steel Association analyzes that the world's political and economic situation is complex and unstable, and uncertain factors have increased significantly. According to a report released by the International Monetary Fund in October, it is expected that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will decline from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0%. On the one hand, the contraction of external demand on the production of China's steel industry is gradually apparent, steel indirect exports are expected to face downward pressure; on the other hand, international energy prices rose sharply, the high price of bulk raw materials, increasing the cost pressure on steel enterprises.

Tong Minghua said that the recent domestic steel prices remain relatively stable, steel prices in overseas markets are on a downward trend, the price difference between domestic and foreign prices has narrowed, rolling mills are not willing to reduce the price of exports, and the export offer is relatively firm. From the steel association to understand the situation, recently the steel enterprises of the export order volume have been reduced.

Meanwhile, overseas steel supply capacity is improving. Lange Steel Research Center monitoring data show that in September, crude steel production in the rest of the world outside of China was 67.2 million tons, up 1 million tons from the previous month, up 3.9% year-on-year.

"Due to the lack of overseas manufacturing boom, the trend of weakening external demand, and the continuous recovery of overseas supply, China's steel industry export order index has contracted, which will form a certain constraint on China's steel exports in the later stage." Wang Guoqing, director of Lange Steel Research Center, said.

Wang Guoqing analyzed that in October, China's steel exports showed a small drop, year-on-year still substantial growth trend. At present, China's steel export price advantage is slightly weakened; the overseas steel market supply year-on-year growth trend and the global manufacturing index in the contraction range fell back again, the contraction of external demand pressure to increase, late steel exports or continue to decline trend. But considering last November, and December, China's steel exports base is relatively low, is expected to end of the year two months will still maintain the year-on-year growth trend.